The Denver Broncos’ decision to release star safety Justin Simmons could easily be written off as collateral damage and a regrettable but necessary step toward recalibrating their salary cap.
But digging deeper, a trend appears to be forming at Simmons’ position, as a group of safeties have flooded the free agent market with teams seemingly prioritizing other areas of the roster. Kevin Byard, Jordan Poyer, Jamal Adams, Eddie Jackson, Quandre Diggs, Rayshawn Jenkins and Marcus Maye were waived (or designated as waived after June 1 in Maye’s case), while Antoine Winfield Jr. was franchise tagged by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Kyle Dugger was tagged in transition by the New England Patriots and Xavier McKinney was not tagged in any way by the New York Giants.
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There was a brief moment Tuesday when McKinney appeared to be in prime position to monopolize the top tier of the safety market in free agency. But within 48 hours, he was shoulder to shoulder with more companions than he probably expected.
Supply is in line to exceed demand, which could reduce the value of the position. It’s unlikely to be as dramatic as the sinking running back market, but seven NFL personnel executives and coaches said The Athletic something has been developing, even if it only becomes a short-term trend.
“(It’s part of a) broader financial trend,” one executive said. “The market was up too much for the overall impact of the position.”
To be fair, it’s impossible to separate Simmons’ release from that of quarterback Russell Wilson, whose release will result in $85 million in dead cap space against the Broncos. The 30-year-old Simmons may no longer be at the top of his game, but opposing teams still view him as one of the best safeties in the game, and his leadership is beyond reproach. But the $14.5 million in cap savings is significant for a team that is in serious financial disarray following Wilson’s release. The Broncos will have to make a series of difficult contract decisions until Wilson’s money comes out of the salary cap.
“(Simmons) is too expensive considering everything else they need to do,” one coach said. “Russell Wilson is an expensive divorce”.
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In that sense, Simmons’ release is unique.
But that’s not the whole story. For all of Simmons’ positive attributes, some of the executives recognized why he wasn’t necessarily worth it, and the argument focused more on the position as a whole.
As the league has become more pass-happy, teams are much more inclined to overspend on quarterback, wide receiver, offensive tackle, edge rusher, cornerback and defensive tackle.
As a result, they have had to cut other positions, whether running back, inside linebacker or safety. Of course, there are always exceptions, but that has become the general pattern. As of Thursday morning, more than $100 million in 2024 cash pay had been lost at the security position, according to Nick Korte from Over The Cap. That was the most of any position by nearly $40 million.
This shit is crazy! There is no loyalty to anything or anyone in this league!
The guy has been a consistent All Pro and Pro Bowler and a Denver staple!! What is really happening with this exodus of deep ones?-Nino (@qdiggs6) March 7, 2024
As one executive noted, there was a small group of safeties in free agency in 2023, and Jessie Bates (four years, $64 million with Atlanta) was the only player to get a huge contract. Carolina’s Vonn Bell, Cleveland’s Juan Thornhill and Dallas’ Donovan Wilson were the only others to sign deals worth a total of at least $20 million. Those four were among nine safeties who signed for at least $6 million a year.
“Although the market was not as strong (in 2023), it was seen that the teams were not willing to pay,” said an executive. “I think we’re going to see a trend where teams are not willing to overpay for this position.”
Philosophically, what’s happening may be more similar to what happened to linebackers than running backs. To some extent, smart defensive coordinators have devised ways to make safeties and linebackers interchangeable commodities in specific packages. And some of the best cornerbacks have taken on safety responsibilities, whether in a game-planning role or full-time.
Meanwhile, running backs have become easier to find in the draft, and younger players with less experience become valuable commodities at a position where injuries take their toll, especially when there’s usually only one on the field at a time. .
This actually produced a counterpoint. It’s relatively rare for a rookie safety to make an impact, so the veteran market should be more attractive in that regard. It may not seem tangible, but it’s usually not difficult to determine which cornerbacks are affected by the safety play around them, for better or worse.
“You often look for defensive coordinators who can turn (players) into safeties because there aren’t enough of them,” one executive said. “You would think that would make the NFL (veteran) more valuable, but that’s not what’s happening.”
Some of what happened this week may be largely coincidental, or at least not indicative of a broader trend around the position. Of the eight aforementioned safeties who were recently released, seven are on the wrong side of 30. Adams, the exception, has an extensive injury history and has played in just 10 games over the past two seasons.
Meanwhile, of the 10 safeties with multiyear deals worth at least $10 million a year, Minnesota’s Harrison Smith is the only player over 30 years old. Like any other position, teams are more willing to hand out contracts that set the market for their younger players. Winfield and Dugger will almost certainly skew those numbers even further in favor of young people when they convert their tags to extensions. McKinney is also a candidate to join the $10 million club.
So while it definitely seems like a trend is developing, there are several reasons why so many stocks have flooded the market lately. Teams are prioritizing more impactful positions, but age and cap losses don’t discriminate anywhere on the depth chart.
“Because so many (safeties) will be released, teams don’t feel the need to overpay,” one coach said. “But I don’t see any long-term safety trend toward paying less like what happened to the broker market.”
(Photo by Justin Simmons: Grant Halverson/Getty Images)
