When the government of President Nicolás Maduro of Venezuela and his country’s opposition signed an agreement in October to work toward free and fair elections this year, it was seen as a glimmer of hope after years of authoritarian rule and the country’s free fall. ‘economy.
The United States, in a sign of goodwill, has temporarily lifted some of the economic sanctions that have crippled the country’s vital oil industry.
But six months later, the Maduro government has made several moves that have reduced the chances of legitimate elections, and on Wednesday a frustrated Biden administration announced it would let sanctions relief lapse.
The reinstatement of sanctions could have significant consequences for the future of Venezuelan democracy, its economy and immigration to the region.
“Maduro and his representatives did not fully comply with the spirit or letter of the agreement,” said a senior administration official who spoke to a group of journalists to discuss a sensitive diplomatic issue.
Another senior official, discussing the reinstatement of sanctions, cited the “disqualification of candidates and parties on technical grounds, and what we see as an ongoing pattern of harassment and repression against opposition and civil society figures.”
The easing of sanctions will expire at midnight on Wednesday, but the official said there will be a “45-day settlement period for transactions related to oil and gas sector operations” so that the deadline “does not cause uncertainty in the sector global energy”.
The Venezuelan government did not immediately respond to a request for comment. But in a televised speech on Monday, Maduro, anticipating the reinstatement of sanctions, said: “We are not a colony of gringos. Venezuela will continue its economic market.”
The United States has imposed sanctions on some Venezuelan leaders for years, but the Trump administration significantly tightened them in 2019, after the United States accused Maduro of fraud in the last presidential election.
The move was intended to force the Maduro government out of power, but Maduro managed to maintain control, even as sanctions led to economic misery for many Venezuelans.
Imports of Venezuelan oil into the United States – its largest customer – have been effectively banned. Oil is Venezuela’s main source of export revenue, and the sanctions have dealt a devastating economic blow that has contributed to a mass exodus of Venezuelans.
The sanctions relief allowed Venezuela to freely sell its crude oil for a period of six months.
Maduro, in power for 11 years, has long sought the lifting of sanctions, while the United States and its allies in Venezuela’s opposition demand that Maduro allow competitive elections that could give his political opponents a legitimate chance to win.
While the deal signed last year in Barbados represented a significant step forward, many were skeptical that Maduro would ever allow an election with a real chance of losing.
A few days after the agreement was signed, a former Venezuelan parliamentarian, María Corina Machado, won the primary elections with more than 90% of the vote. Her victory and high voter turnout showed, experts said, that she had a strong chance of defeating Maduro in a free and fair election.
Since then, the Maduro government has erected further barriers to prevent the possibility of a competitive vote.
The country’s highest court disqualified Ms. Machado in January over what the judges said were financial irregularities that occurred when she was a national lawmaker. These types of disqualifications are a common tactic used by Maduro to keep strong competitors off the ballot.
Subsequently, the government, using technical electoral maneuvers, prevented an opposition coalition from presenting another preferred candidate. The opposition was eventually allowed to put forward a different candidate, Edmundo González, a former diplomat, but it is unclear whether his name will appear on the ballot in the July 28 elections.
An opposition party was allowed to officially register another candidate: Manuel Rosales, the governor of the populous state of Zulia, whose candidacy is widely seen as endorsed by Maduro, according to political analysts.
An unclassified US intelligence report in February he declared that Maduro would probably win the elections and remain in power “thanks to his control over state institutions that influence the electoral process and his willingness to exercise his power”.
Although the Maduro administration had placed allies on Venezuela’s electoral council, the intelligence report said it was “also trying to avoid blatant voter fraud.”
Six of Ms. Machado’s campaign aides have been arrested and six others have been in hiding since arrest warrants were issued against them. Men on motorbikes attacked supporters of her events. Many Venezuelans live abroad they were unable register to vote due to expensive and cumbersome requirements.
Now that sanctions have been reinstated, experts say the Venezuelan government is unlikely to reconsider its anti-democratic actions.
The Maduro government has “no ulterior motive to make further concessions or even maintain some of the concessions made so far,” said Mariano de Alba, a senior adviser at the International Crisis Group, a think tank. “So we may be moving towards a more unequal playing field on the electoral side.”
The move could also affect migration in the region.
Exhausted from years of economic struggle and lack of freedom, millions of Venezuelans have attempted to reach the U.S. border over the past two years, creating a political and humanitarian crisis for the Biden administration.
At the time of the Barbados deal, Venezuela also agreed to accept Venezuelan migrants deported from the United States, a move intended to demonstrate that President Biden was aggressively addressing record border crossings and to discourage other Venezuelans who might consider travel.
But those deportation flights stopped in February without explanation. Now that sanctions have been reinstated, they are unlikely to resume.
According to experts, the reduction of sanctions has also had a modest but notable effect on the Venezuelan economy over the past six months. Oil exports recently reached a highest in the last four years and inflation has reached low decade.
But the resumption of sanctions could reverse these results. A struggling economy coupled with the strong possibility that Maduro could win another illegitimate election could lead to another wave of migration, experts say.
While the Biden administration has said it will reinstate sanctions, another U.S. official said the government may still allow individual companies on a case-by-case basis to do business with Venezuela’s oil and gas sector.
Allowing such limited business to continue with Venezuela gives the United States some leverage in discussions with Maduro, experts said.
