Following the rapid overthrow of Bashar al-Assad’s regime by Islamist rebels, Syria continues to face significant instability. The interim administration, under the leadership of Ahmad al-Sharaa, is struggling with increasing security issues, such as fierce resistance from Assad’s remaining supporters. Although the fall of Assad’s repressive regime was a pivotal moment in Syria’s 13-year conflict, achieving lasting peace remains a complex challenge.
The transitional administration, mainly made up of individuals who gained recognition from opposition hubs such as Idlib in the northwest, has taken over a fragmented nation ravaged by prolonged conflict. The dismantling of Assad-era institutions, including the military and the Baath Party, has resulted in the displacement of hundreds of thousands of former regime officials and allies. A significant number of these individuals have declined to make peace with the new administration, sparking unrest that jeopardizes the stability of the delicate government.
The transitional government, composed largely of figures who rose to prominence from opposition strongholds like Idlib in the northwest, has inherited a fractured country devastated by years of conflict. The removal of Assad-era power structures, including the army and the Baath Party, has displaced hundreds of thousands of former regime officials and supporters. Many of these individuals have refused to reconcile with the new government, fueling unrest that threatens to destabilize the fragile administration.
Following Assad’s exit, his supporters have become a formidable insurgent group. These remains of the old regime, with deep roots in Syria’s military, intelligence, and political frameworks, have used their established networks to mount armed opposition. This rebellion is especially pronounced in the coastal regions of Latakia and Tartous, traditional bastions of the Assad lineage and the heartland of Syria’s Alawite community.
In the months since Assad’s departure, his loyalists have emerged as a significant insurgent force. These remnants of the former regime, many of whom were deeply embedded in Syria’s military, intelligence, and political systems, have leveraged their pre-existing networks to organize armed resistance. This insurgency has been particularly active in the coastal provinces of Latakia and Tartous, long-standing strongholds of the Assad family and home to much of Syria’s Alawite minority.
The Institute for the Study of War, a research body, has cautioned that Assad loyalists may constitute some of the most proficient insurgent groups in Syria. Their expertise in military strategy and capacity to exploit existing networks provide them with a tactical edge in orchestrating assaults against the new regime. For interim President Sharaa, this escalating insurgency is the primary hurdle to solidifying control and maintaining national security.
Increasing strife in Alawite areas
Rising tensions in Alawite regions
Recent accounts of aggression towards Alawite communities have intensified these tensions. Activists have alleged that gunmen linked to the government have killed dozens of male inhabitants in Alawite regions, a claim yet to be independently confirmed but which has nonetheless triggered widespread anger. These events threaten to push more Alawites towards insurgent factions, complicating the government’s attempts to stabilize the area even further.
The scenario in Syria’s southern region continues to be unstable. Despite an agreement struck with Druze forces earlier this week to reduce hostilities, the government still encounters opposition from multiple factions nationwide. Given that various areas are governed by rival groups supported by external powers, the interim government’s influence is both restricted and divided.
Future Economic and Diplomatic Hurdles
In addition to the pressing security challenges, Syria’s interim government is facing a severe economic crisis. Years of conflict have resulted in nine out of ten Syrians living in poverty, and the nation continues to suffer under the heavy international sanctions placed during Assad’s tenure. Sharaa’s government has prioritized the removal of these sanctions, seeing it as vital for economic recovery and establishing legitimacy worldwide.
Nonetheless, Western countries remain cautious about Sharaa’s objectives, with some doubting whether the new administration can genuinely distance itself from the repressive methods of the Assad era. This skepticism has hampered attempts to garner international backing, keeping Syria’s economy vulnerable. The interim administration’s capacity to rejuvenate the nation will hinge on its effectiveness in tackling both domestic security issues and foreign diplomatic obstacles.
A nation split
A country divided
Despite the fall of Assad, Syria remains a patchwork of competing factions and external influences. The transitional government’s control is far from absolute, with various groups holding sway over different parts of the country. These factions, often backed by foreign powers with competing interests, add another layer of complexity to Syria’s fragile political landscape.
For Sharaa, the task of unifying the country is as much about earning the trust of its people as it is about overcoming the insurgent threat. His administration has called on former members of Assad’s security forces to surrender their weapons and accept reconciliation, but progress has been slow. “We are keeping an eye on everyone, but we don’t want to create the impression that we are hunting them down,” said a high-ranking official in the transitional government. This cautious approach reflects the delicate balance the new leadership must strike as it attempts to restore order without alienating key segments of the population.
The ousting of Bashar al-Assad was a pivotal moment in Syria’s history, yet the transition to peace and stability is riddled with challenges. From the insurgent dangers presented by Assad’s supporters to the profound splits among Syria’s religious and ethnic groups, the future remains uncertain. The interim administration must maneuver through these difficulties while attending to the urgent demands of a populace ravaged by over ten years of conflict.
Simultaneously, Syria’s leadership encounters increasing global scrutiny as they work to remove sanctions and gain the support necessary to reconstruct the nation. For the interim government, success will hinge on its capability to tackle the underlying causes of unrest, promote inclusivity, and show a sincere commitment to moving away from the authoritarian practices of the past.
At the same time, Syria’s leaders face mounting international scrutiny as they seek to lift sanctions and secure the support needed to rebuild the country. For the transitional government, success will depend on its ability to address the root causes of unrest, foster inclusivity, and demonstrate a genuine commitment to breaking from the authoritarian practices of the past.
As clashes continue and tensions rise, Syria’s future hangs in the balance. The coming months will be critical for Sharaa’s government as it works to consolidate power, restore security, and lay the foundation for a more stable and prosperous nation.
