The 2023 season comes down to conference championship weekend. We could have the simplest and most impressive College Football Playoff field in the event’s 10-year history, we could have total chaos, or we could have something in between, with a little last-minute drama.
Michigan’s win against Ohio State moves the Wolverines to the No. 2 spot in this week’s rankings and leaves four Power 5 teams undefeated heading into the weekend. If Georgia, Michigan, Washington and Florida State win, it will be an easy pick. But SEC, Pac-12 and ACC games could be very competitive and see undefeated teams lose, giving the committee its toughest decisions since 2014.
Oregon likely still has the strongest case among one-loss teams. The Ducks were the committee’s highest-ranked one-loss team last week, and if they beat Washington, they’ll avenge their only loss of the season. Oregon entered the week as a 9.5-point favorite at BetMGM. An Alabama win against Georgia would create the most chaos, but can you put the Crimson Tide ahead of a Texas team that won in Tuscaloosa?
It is impossible to predict what the results will be and what the committee will do. Let’s appreciate the biggest conference championship weekend we’ve had in a long time.
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The regular season has come to an end, meaning teams with losing seasons have essentially locked up their final spots in these rankings, pending some small moves due to bowl games. But there may still be a lot of changes in the top half. Here you have this week’s Athletic 133.
1-10
The only question in the top nine was where to place Ohio State, although it may ultimately be irrelevant to the playoff picture with the other one-loss teams playing in championship games. Here, the Buckeyes drop a few spots, but they are still the best one-loss team because they have two good wins (Penn State, Notre Dame) plus a one-score loss to the No. 2 team. Oregon has dominated its opponents in wins, but has no wins over current top-20 teams and a one-score loss to No. 3 Washington. Texas beat Alabama and lost by one score to Oklahoma, but does not have a second top-25 win. Alabama, of course, lost to Texas and still has a bad performance against USF on its resume, plus some good wins (Ole Miss, LSU).
All of those teams could skip Ohio State (and into the CFP) if they win their conference championship games, and they’ll still probably end up in the New Year’s Six games if they lose. Do I think Ohio State would beat those teams right now? Maybe not. But we try to emphasize resume and matchup in these rankings.
Ranks 9 and 10 are important for NY6 purposes. Ole Miss actually jumps Missouri here due to their wins against LSU and Tulane (although the Green Wave were playing their backup QB). While Missouri played close to Georgia, their best win was Tennessee, Kansas State or Memphis, none of which are in my top 25, and the Tigers also lost to LSU, who Ole Miss beat.
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11-25
| Range | Equipment | Record | Former |
|---|---|---|---|
|
eleven |
10-2 |
14 |
|
|
12 |
10-2 |
12 |
|
|
13 |
9-3 |
13 |
|
|
14 |
9-3 |
fifteen |
|
|
fifteen |
10-2 |
9 |
|
|
sixteen |
9-3 |
17 |
|
|
17 |
11-1 |
twenty |
|
|
18 |
12-0 |
22 |
|
|
19 |
11-1 |
twenty-one |
|
|
twenty |
9-3 |
18 |
|
|
twenty-one |
8-4 |
sixteen |
|
|
22 |
9-3 |
23 |
|
|
23 |
10-2 |
24 |
|
|
24 |
11-1 |
25 |
|
|
25 |
10-2 |
26 |
Oklahoma moves up to 11th place after beating TCU. Although No. 12 Penn State has better losses (Ohio State, Michigan), the Sooners have better wins (Texas, SMU, larger margin of victory against West Virginia), and it’s possible Oklahoma could reach No. 10 if Texas wins the Big 12 and SMU win the AAC. Louisville drops to 15th after losing to Kentucky, one spot ahead of Notre Dame due to their head-to-head finish.
Tulane beat UTSA and remains the Group of 5’s top team at No. 17, ahead of a clash with No. 25 SMU. Liberty is 12-0, with an early-season win against New Mexico State, which Now he has 10 victories, it is a quality victory. James Madison is 11-1 and will bowl, but is not eligible for the New Year’s Six. The big question is whether the CFP committee would place two-loss AAC champion SMU over potentially 13-0 Liberty.
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26-50
There are not many changes in this group. Kansas State drops out of the top 25 after a loss to Iowa State. New Mexico State is ranked 31st after beating Jacksonville State to move to 10-3. Kentucky’s win against Louisville moves the Wildcats to No. 43, while No. 48 Northwestern and No. 49 Maryland move into the top 25 after wins against Illinois and Rutgers, respectively. Northwestern has the advantage over the Terps. No. 45 Iowa State beat Kansas State but remains behind Ohio 9-3 due to their head-to-head result. Appalachian State defeated Georgia Southern 55-27 to move up to No. 50 with five straight wins to close out the regular season.
51-75
Georgia Tech rises to 51st place after struggling against Georgia and losing by eight points. Cal jumps to 55th after beating UCLA, but remains behind Auburn due to the matchup. Fresno State drops to No. 61 after ending its regular season with losses to New Mexico and San Diego State, but the Bulldogs remain ahead of Boise State thanks to their head-to-head victory. San Jose State moves up to 70th place after beating UNLV and closing out its regular season with six straight wins.
76-100
Colorado ended its season by losing eight of its last nine games after a 3-0 start, and Deion Sanders’ group sits at No. 79. Bowling Green moves up to No. 83 after beating Western Michigan and winning five of its last six games, with the only loss against Toledo. No. 87 USF moved to 6-6 after beating Charlotte 48-14, and Alex Golesh put together one of the most impressive seasons for a first-year coach this season. Old Dominion beat Georgia State at the buzzer to finish 6-6 and move up to No. 88. The Monarchs have played 10 one-score games this season. Utah State beat New Mexico in double overtime and Louisiana beat ULM as both reached bowl eligibility.
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101-133
No. 103 Northern Illinois and No. 106 Eastern Michigan won to reach bowl eligibility, but EMU remains behind Western Michigan and Central Michigan due to losses to both. Vanderbilt finishes as the lowest-ranked Power 5 team at No. 114; Baylor is the next closest at No. 109. Sam Houston closed its season with a decisive field goal against Middle Tennessee, winning three of its last four games after an 0-8 start. UConn won its last two games against Sacred Heart and UMass to move up to No. 120. Tulsa’s win against East Carolina saw the Golden Hurricane finish No. 125 and the Pirates finish No. 128. Kent State finished No. 133 .having gone 0-11 against FBS competition.
The Athletic 133 Rankings series is part of a partnership with AllState.
The Athletic maintains complete editorial independence. Partners have no control or input over the reporting or editing process and do not review stories before publication.
(Photo: Steph Chambers/Getty Images)
