For more than a month, smoke signals rising from Rafael Nadal’s court have kept the tennis world on alert, generating predictions of everything from a triumphant spring on the red clay of Paris to him never playing another competitive match after another hip injury in Australia in January.
The only thing that seemed clear was that the 22-time Grand Slam champion was prioritizing the clay court season in Europe this spring. Nadal said this in January when he returned after a year-long layoff due to hip surgery.
Sure, he was happy to return and compete in Australia, where he won the first Grand Slam of the year in 2022, but he was especially focused on being in top form or, at least, as close to it as possible. At this point, three months from now, when the red clay tournaments begin in earnest.
That was part of the reason he skipped the Australian Open once he suffered a small muscle tear near his hip three matches into his last return. Logic suggested that Nadal would wait until tennis returned to organic surfaces that are much less demanding on the body and where an aging, injury-prone player like Nadal, who is 37 years old and plays the more physical style of tennis, would have more chances of winning. stay healthy.
Few were surprised when he announced this month on social media that he was withdrawing from a hard-court tournament in Doha. It was the second sentence of that post that took some by surprise.
“I will focus on continuing to work to be ready for the exhibition in Las Vegas and the incredible Indian Wells tournament,” Nadal wrote on Valentine’s Day.
It would be an MGM Resorts exhibition match against 20-year-old Spanish sensation Carlos Alcaraz this weekend in Las Vegas, which will air on Netflix, and then the BNP Paribas Open in nearby Indian Wells, California, which begins next week .
That seemed strange to someone. Still, she had plenty of time to withdraw from those events and spend a few more weeks in Spain preparing for clay.
And then last week, Novak Djokovic posted a photo of him and Nadal on the same flight Nadal was on to the United States. “Let’s go,” Djokovic wrote. The game continues, at least in theory.
Great company on the way to the USA 🇺🇸 😎💪🎾 @Rafael Nadal #idemooo #come on @atptour #TennisParadise pic.twitter.com/UDB13mp4Ux
—Novak Djokovic (@DjokerNole) February 23, 2024
The question, however, is why?
“If he is fit, he wants to play,” his longtime spokesman, Benito Pérez-Barbadillo, said Monday. “He is a tennis player and he wants to play in the most important tournaments. And he loves Indian Wells.”
As Patrick McEnroe, the commentator and former player who called the match against Alcaraz, noted, Nadal often thrives on the hard, slow courts of Indian Wells, where he won three times and reached the final on two other occasions.
Injuries in exhibitions are extremely rare, but an exhibition and hard-court tournament in March, even one Nadal likes as much as Indian Wells, will improve his chances of being fit enough to compete for the title at the Open. from France in May and June. , where he has won 14 times and there is a statue of him hitting the forehand of it with a whip outside the main stadium? In recent years, Nadal has locked himself away after Indian Wells for about three weeks to begin honing his pace and conditioning for two months of clay court tennis, where the pace and style of play are markedly different from those on the courts. hard
Welcome back, field 👋
📷: @Rafael Nadal | #TennisParadise pic.twitter.com/oVdoxv5JH0
— BNP Paribas Open (@BNPPARIBASOPEN) February 26, 2024
The elephant in the room here is money.
It is always uncomfortable to count other people’s money, to suggest what should be enough. This is especially the case for professional athletes, whose careers typically end by age 40 and who have become accustomed to a certain lifestyle.
That said, Nadal has won more than $134 million in prize money during his more than 20-year career. He has raked in tens of millions, perhaps more, in endorsement and appearance fees. The terms of his deal with MGM and MGM’s deal with Netflix are not public, but he is likely to collect at least $1 million for the Alcaraz match given how much he and other players of his caliber have earned from playing similar events.
Nadal will not receive an appearance fee to play in Indian Wells, as it is a mandatory tournament for healthy players. He has other incentives. Larry Ellison, the billionaire founder of Oracle and owner of the tournament, has become a friend and hosts Nadal at his private resort.
There, Nadal can dedicate himself to his other passion: golf. He has been known to play 18 or even 36 holes a day during his time in the desert and has already been to the golf courses of California.
(Quality Sports Images/Getty Images)
It’s a good life. The question is whether he is risking the clay season, where he probably has his best chance to win his 23rd Grand Slam singles title. Nadal would probably try to dismiss that thought or anything that might suggest he is some sort of clay court specialist.
“I think it’s fine,” said Paul Annacone, the longtime coach (Roger Federer, Taylor Fritz) and commentator. “He is already in California practicing, acclimatizing. So the only problem is if it’s not 100 percent. Then don’t go. But I don’t think I would be here in California if I wasn’t close to 100 percent and ready for Indian Wells.”
Days after retiring from Doha, Nadal posted a video of himself practicing slow returns of serve with the caption “Work in progress.” There have been more videos since he arrived in Indian Wells, but there are no images of anything approaching the intensity.
All this has only increased the mystery about when Nadal could leave for good. Last year, shortly after his hip surgery, he suggested that 2024 would be his final season and serve as a farewell tour of sorts as he visited the tournaments and cities that had meant the most to him during his career.
He then showed flashes of his former self during his three matches in Australia and got a taste of the competition he craves. Since then he has not committed to any strict schedule, insisting that he is taking it day by day.
The Olympic Games tournament will take place this summer at Roland Garros, home of the French Open. There had been speculation that it could serve as his exit. He then signed a deal to serve as an ambassador to Saudi Arabia’s tennis federation and play in an exhibition in Riyadh in October with Djokovic, Daniil Medvedev, Alcaraz, Jannik Sinner and Holger Rune. That scenario would seem like an odd choice for his final games.
The Davis Cup final will take place in Spain a month later. Maybe then? That is, assuming he can make it that far without suffering another serious injury.
For now, for better or worse, he has a big payday in Las Vegas and a hard-court tournament (and a lot of golf) in the California desert to focus on.
(Top photo: William West/AFP via Getty Images)
