Yesterday, I mainly focused on setting the table for the updated NBA pre-postseason player tiers before revealing Tier 3 (players ranked 24-42) and Tier 4 (numbers 43-80).
Today, I’ll delve a little deeper into some of the more interesting and/or challenging locations, as well as point out some general trends.
To start, one consistent piece of feedback (and one I’ve received from multiple sources since the release of Tiers 3 and 4) is the always difficult assessment of which player is more valuable between an elite role player and a good-but-not player. -great primary or secondary creator. One member of the senior analytics staff within the league even went so far as to argue that they would prefer essentially the entirety of Tier 4A, made up largely of elite players or connectors, rather than Tier 3B, which is made up of near-All primaries. -Star.
I don’t think there’s a reliable way to resolve this debate, and at some level deciding between, say, Mikal Bridges on the one hand and Jaylen Brown on the other is more a function of the rest of the respective rosters than the individual players. . In that particular comparison, I think it’s entirely possible, if not probable, that both the Celtics and Nets would be better off if they were both traded.
Third NBA players: ’20 | ’21 | ’22 | ‘23: T5| T4| T3 | T2 | T1 | ’24: T3 and 4
In some ways, this is really an extension of the long-simmering question of how to rate the elite, yet still very good, level of players on the ball. At least from my perspective, there is nothing more valuable in the league than elite shot creation and nothing more overrated than mediocre shot creation, but finding the importance and appeal of middle-of-the-road players is simply difficult.
It’s also, in some form, the reason to do this exercise in the first place, as identifying that there is a fairly wide gap between Brown and Jayson Tatum and that the difference between Luka Dončić and Donovan Mitchell is substantial is a vital part of roster assessment. In other words, avoid cheapening the term “franchise player.”
Another group of colleagues who illustrate this dichotomy are Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner. I didn’t think Banchero was an especially worthy All-Star this year. Through the April 10 games, there are only eight players who have scored at least 100 fewer points than they would have with a similar number of scoring attempts in league average efficiency per Basketball Reference, with Banchero ranking seventh in that list. However, on some level, this is a result of the lack of other creators in Orlando. In my simple shot quality model, his expected eFG% of 50.2 percent is the 24th lowest among the 162 players with at least 500 recorded shots attempted this season.
But getting back to it, the players with the toughest shooting diets 21, 22 and 23 are Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Anthony Edwards and Tatum, who have significantly exceeded their shooting expectations by 209 (SGA, third out of 162), 73 (Edwards, 45th) and 151 (Tatum, 13th) points scored, while Banchero has shot essentially at the level of his shooting quality (-3 points, 124th of 162). Should he get credit for helping keep Orlando’s offense afloat by at least being able to absorb possessions? How would he perform with a more creative guard playing around him? I’m not entirely sure, that’s why Banchero is a difficult player to rate.
Wagner, meanwhile, doesn’t have the same personal creation ability as Banchero, but he is superior in most other areas (more efficient scoring, better and more versatile defense, off-ball play) in a way that would make him a very ready to play. -play in addition to any teams that have already filled their primary creative roles.
Moving on, there are some notable players who could have been much higher had a third mid-season update been made. Tyrese Haliburton is one of them. He has been great this year, a worthy All-Star and the driving force behind Indiana’s powerful offense. But the second half of the year hasn’t lived up to the first half, whether as a result of lingering injuries slowing him down or defenses starting to catch on or, most likely, a combination of both. This, combined with my uncertainty about how well his style translates into the playoffs, has him in Tier 3 when for much of the season I had him placed at the lower end of Tier 2.
Damian Lillard is another player who has dropped in level throughout the season. Early in the year, it was an easy pass of sorts based both on adjusting to a new team and role and the confusion among coaches that plagued the Bucks during the early part of the season. But even though he’s shown some of the old dominance in fits and starts, like the 29 points (on 19 shot attempts) and nine assists he scored Wednesday to lead the Bucks past the Magic despite the absence of Giannis Antetokounmpo, Those performances have been the exception rather than the rule. Over his final four seasons in Portland, Lillard combined for 62.1 true shots with 31.4 usage. In Milwaukee, his efficiency has fallen to 59.3 TS with 28.4 usage, his least efficient full season relative to league average since his rookie year. For a player who has always been a big question mark on defense, it’s a worrying decline at 33 years old.
Of course, he could shoot a ton in the playoffs and help drag the Bucks to the Eastern Conference Finals or even the NBA Finals and prove that he still belongs in the top-20 discussion.
Speaking of playoffs, yesterday I mentioned that there were some players who couldn’t easily improve their level until the playoffs, with Tatum, Dončić and Joel Embiid being the main examples. All three have great opportunities heading into the postseason this year, and Dončić in particular seems well-prepared to make a run for it; The midseason addition of Daniel Gafford and the Mavericks’ newfound ability to always match Dončić’s creative dominance with a strong pick-and-roll partner surrounded by shooting seems to have unlocked something special.
Meanwhile, there are some players for whom I’ve already more or less assumed playoff greatness based on past experience. Jimmy Butler and Jamal Murray haven’t exactly had exceptional regular seasons, but they both have a history of dominance in the playoffs.
Going back and forth a bit, I’m not sure what to make of Ja Morant, so I’m essentially treating this as a sabbatical and recognize that he’s secured additional scrutiny next year.
Finally, let’s talk about the big Frenchman in the room. Victor Wembanyama in Level 2B, among the top 14 players in the league. I don’t think he’s been at the All-NBA level all season, but he’s been pretty good as a rookie and has shown development throughout the year, which suggests to me that he’ll enter next season with a strong shot at earning honors. of all leagues.
This growth is especially evident when comparing before and after his starting switch to center instead of power forward in early December or the insertion of Tre Jones as a starter in early January to pair Wembanyama with a competent point guard.
In the first, he’s been one of the league’s top five rim protectors ever since, with a similar profile to Brook Lopez during that stretch. Meanwhile, before Jones joined the starters, Wembanyama only managed a 53.3 true shooting percentage (with 29.9 usage), but that mark has since jumped to a 58.5 TS% with usage at 33.7, while increasing his assist rate by nearly 50 percent. And all this with his 3-point shot still a work in progress.
Of course, the numbers don’t even tell the full story of Wemby, as evidenced by the near-nightly parade of “Wait, he did what?” reflexes. While he won’t get the chance to prove himself in this year’s playoffs, it seems almost inevitable that, if he can avoid an injury, he will be knocking on the door of Tier 1 as soon as he has fulfilled everything that is expected of him. I was waiting for him. be, and more.
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(Illustration: Dan Goldfarb / The Athletic; Photos: Michael Gonzales, Garrett Ellwood, Adam Pantozzi/NBAE via Getty)
