By Tim Britton, Grant Brisbee and Stephen J. Nesbitt
Trade
Yankees get: Juan Soto, OF, Trent Grisham, OF
Padres get: Michael King, RHP; Drew Thorpe, RHP; Jhony Brito, RHP; Randy Vasquez, RHP; and Kyle Higashioka, C.
Tim Britton: Every team would improve by adding Juan Soto. But perhaps no team needed Soto more than the Yankees.
This isn’t just for narrative reasons, although countering his worst season in three decades by adding one of the sport’s greatest successes helps in that regard. But in 2023, only two teams saw worse production from their left-handed hitters than the Yankees. Perhaps it follows that only one team gave fewer plate appearances to lefties than New York. What’s bad for any team is especially egregious for one that plays in a stadium designed to cater to left-handed hitters.
The Yankees ranked 26th in the majors in OPS from their outfield, and that was despite the presence of Aaron Judge. Take it out of the calculation and New York’s outfielders slashed .214/.276/.360 for a .636 OPS. So yeah, even if it costs you a good pitching prospect and a promising big league arm, you do whatever it takes to add Soto’s career .946 OPS to that group. Adds his otherworldly eye, the power that will stand out in the Bronx, and the versatility he brings to a lineup that has gotten serious in recent years. It’s Juan Soto.
For San Diego, part of the trade for Soto when they did was knowing that if things went wrong, they could always try to recoup some of the cost of the prospect by advancing him to free agency. They earned an NLCS appearance thanks to the trade and got some legitimate talent back, but, well, things have been bad financially. It’s hard to view the Soto trade as a positive.
Yankees standings: HAS
Parent rank: against
Grant Brisbee: Juan Soto is on his way to the Hall of Fame. Look at that, he’s on his way to becoming an inner circle Hall of Famer, right there with the greatest of the greats. If you want to go back, remember that the guy just turned 25 years old. Twenty five years. There are four players who are 25 years old or older. List of top 100 MLB prospects.
But this is not just a curiosity. If you’re looking at someone who’s hitting free agency in the prime of a very, very special career, wouldn’t you like 10 months where you’re the only team in baseball that can talk to him about an extension? It’s not just about planting the seeds, but about watering them and putting them under a halogen lamp. People will complain that the Yankees are giving up a lot of talent for a one-year rental, especially when it comes to major league production in 2024, but it’s not just that. It’s a test. See how welcoming Yankees fans are? See how perfectly the short porch on the right helps you? Wouldn’t you like to stay here for 14 more years?
My only quibble with the Yankees going for Soto is that it forces Aaron Judge into center field, which isn’t ideal for a 30-something big man coming off a toe injury, but that’s more Alex Verdugo’s fault, actually. Juan Soto is on the Yankees. That’s something to celebrate.
Juan Soto is not with the Padres. I understand why, but that doesn’t mean he’s not depressing. They needed weapons to make up for the many they’re losing in free agency, and they need to cut payroll because it turns out they’ve been on a spending spree and it wasn’t sustainable.
That doesn’t mean it doesn’t suck. They’re losing a guy who played 162 games for them last year and posted a .410 on-base percentage, .930 OPS and 158 OPS+. They need to replace pitchers, yes, but how do you replace that? They still have a lot of great players, but they were already below the league average in runs scored per game. Losing 162 magic games on base will be almost impossible to recover from.
Michael King will help the Padres pitching staff right away. (Eric Canha/USA TODAY)
There is returning talent, to be clear. Michael King will help you right away. Drew Thorpe looks like someone who moves fast. Randy Vasquez had a brilliant ERA in the majors and a dusty FIP, and had control issues in the minors, but he should help at some point in the near future.
However, there are a lot of hopes going the other way, so it’s hard to love him from the Parents’ perspective.
Yankees: A+
Parents: C+
Stephen J. Nesbitt: The last left-handed (or switch-hitting) hitters with a .400 OBP in a full season for the Yankees are Jorge Posada, Jason Giambi and Bobby Abreu. It’s been 16 years since any of them last did it.
And the last Yankees lefties with a 140 OPS+ in a full season are Robinson Canó, Curtis Granderson and Mark Teixeira. It’s been a decade since any of them last did so.
Soto has never had a season below .400 OBP or 140 OPS+. Not in the majors. Not in the minors. Probably not like a sweetly swaying child in Santo Domingo either! In today’s game, Soto is in a class of his own as a hitter. More look, more contact, more power. He has a World Series ring, a Home Run Derby trophy, a batting title, but he seems proudest when he spits out a ball an inch from home plate. His experience fits wonderfully with the Yankees’ biggest need. Soto will spend the year 2024 spraying baseballs around Yankee Stadium and parking them on the short porch, joining forces with Judge to form a supreme one-two punch of power and patience.
Grisham doesn’t move the needle offensively, but he gives the Yankees a fourth outfielder who can play center while they await the return of Jasson Dominguez.
The next question, of course, is whether one season is all they’ll do together. If that’s all, the Yankees better make it count. Their first order of business is to strengthen the rest of the roster, starting with the rotation that just lost a lot of depth in this trade, and then turn their attention to whether they can keep Soto in the Bronx long-term.
For the Fathers, the return is the return. That’s fine, if you’ve come to accept the position that the Padres should move Soto and his projected $33 million salary sooner rather than later. But that doesn’t blow you away. Michael King has looked very good at times, and even better lately, but he is also 28 years old, two years away from free agency, and has yet to carry the full workload of a starter in the majors. A 2022 second-round pick, Thorpe is a promising prospect with significant upside as a starter. He is coming off an outstanding season, posting a 2.52 ERA between High A and Double A, and was named Pitcher of the Year Prospect by MLB Pipeline. Still, the Padres won’t bring any can’t-miss players here. The only certainty here is that the guy is going in the opposite direction.
Before the trade, the Padres’ projected 2024 rotation included Yu Darvish, Joe Musgrove and then a sharp decline. Between King, Thorpe, Brito and Vázquez they will fix the back end of their rotation for next season and strengthen things for the future. That could work very well. But overall, you’re not going to swing a bat the size of Soto and come out a winner.
Yankees: HAS
Parents: B-
(Top photo: Ezra Shaw/Getty Images)
