They are studying his interviews, preparing for mass deportations and preparing political proposals to bring to the negotiating table.
As Mexico heads toward next month's presidential election, government officials and election aides are also preparing for a different vote: one in the United States that could return Donald Trump to the presidency.
The last time Trump took office, his victory surprised many of America's allies, and his threat-filled diplomacy forced them to adapt on the go. Now they have time to predict how Trump's victory would transform the relations that President Biden has sought to normalize — and they are furiously preparing for an upheaval.
For some, the memory of negotiations with Trump the last time he was in office, when he used extreme threats against Mexico, looms large.
What did it take to reach an agreement with Trump's team then? “Time, patience, coolness,” former Mexican Foreign Minister Marcelo Ebrard said in an interview. “You can win if you understand it. It's not easy.”
In Mexico, officials say working with Trump could be even more difficult this time. The former president promised “the largest deportation operation in American history,” floated the idea 100% tariffs on Chinese cars produced in Mexico and promised to deploy U.S. special forces to, as he put it, “wage war on the cartels.”
Behind the scenes, according to a senior official, the Mexican government is talking to people close to the Trump campaign about proposals such as the former president's threat of a “universal tariff” on all imported goods, and is working to resolve trade disagreements before the American elections. Mexican official not authorized to speak publicly.
The goal, the official said, is to leave the future Mexican administration as well equipped as possible to talk to Trump.
Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador forged a close working relationship with Trump in the early years of his administration, despite Trump's repeated threats to impose tariffs on Mexico and make the country pay for a border wall.
But López Obrador will step down once his term ends after June's presidential elections, in which polls give a significant lead to his protégé, Claudia Sheinbaum, the former mayor of Mexico City.
The unwritten rules of López Obrador's relationship with Trump were that Mexico should do all it could on immigration and that the White House should allow it to pursue its domestic priorities without meddling. It seemed to work for both men.
The Mexican leader praised Trump for respecting Mexican sovereignty. Trump, in turn, called the Mexican leader “a friend” and “a great president”.
But it's unclear how Trump would engage with either major presidential candidate.
“Both President Trump and President Biden we will have good relations,” Ms. Sheinbaum said in an interview. “We will always defend Mexico and Mexicans in the United States – and we want an equal relationship.”
Xóchitl Gálvez, the main opposition candidate, said she also could work with both men as president.
“Obviously I would prefer to work with a gentleman as respectful and courteous as Joe Biden,” Ms. Gálvez told The New York Times. “But in my professional and political life I have dealt with all kinds of masculinities,” she said. “It wouldn't be the first time I've dealt with a character with complicated masculinity, so I could work perfectly with Trump.”
Campaign aides are making plans for both outcomes.
“I'm not worried, but we will be prepared,” said Juan Ramón de la Fuente, a member of Ms. Sheinbaum's team, referring to a potential Trump victory. “We are preparing for both scenarios.”
On immigration, “we need to be more effective in reducing irregular crossings,” said de la Fuente, who most recently served as Mexico's ambassador to the United Nations and is seen as a potential pick for foreign minister in a possible Sheinbaum administration.
But he also pointed out that American laws function as “a not very healthy incentive” that helps push migration, “because the moment you hit the ground, you're a candidate for asylum.”
Some officials in Mexico believe the country has more influence in its dealings with the United States than in the past. The White House has relied heavily on Mr. López Obrador to slow migration at the U.S. southern border, and this cooperation has given Mexico significant influence on one of the most important issues in American politics.
“In structural terms, Mexico is gaining more power than the United States,” Ebrard said. Mexico's economy has performed relatively well in recent years, and its factories have become an attractive alternative to China for the United States.
As in Mexico, “any administration in the United States needs you for their immigration policy,” he said. “The geopolitical tension is working in a way for a stronger Mexico.”
Ebrard, who is part of Ms. Sheinbaum's campaign and seen as a possible Cabinet member if he wins, led negotiations with Trump's advisers while he was in office.
On trade, “their priority was labor reform, raising wages in Mexico,” Ebrard said. This was welcome in Mexico, since the López Obrador administration had campaigned on a left-wing platform and pledged to raise Mexican wages.
When it comes to migration, the real demand was much harder to meet. Trump wanted “a dramatic reduction” in border crossings, Ebrard said, but he disagreed with Mexico about investing in ways to address the causes that drive people to migrate.
However, he said, Mexico succeeded in pushing the administration to recognize its point of view.
In December 2018, the Trump administration joined the Mexico-led initiative and committed trillions of dollars in public and private investment in Central America, though months later the former president moved to cut off all aid to the region in response to migrant caravans.
The Mexican government has been criticized for getting too little in return for accepting tens of thousands of asylum seekers repatriated under the Trump-era “Remain in Mexico” policy. But the administration also achieved clear victories, including the renegotiation of the free trade agreement with the United States and Canada.
Ms. Gálvez argued that the government missed an opportunity to grant more rights to undocumented Mexicans in the United States and protect migrants stranded in Mexico, but she also praised the trade deal.
“In this sense, Mexico won, won a lot with Trump,” Gálvez said, adding that Trump never imposed the tariffs he had threatened. “It wasn't that bad.”
