The three biggest names on the quarterback market were taken off the board within 24 hours at the start of free agency, as Kirk Cousins, Baker Mayfield and Russell Wilson evaluated their markets and took advantage of their opportunities.
Each had different priorities at unique stages of their careers. And while they quickly landed their next contracts, the trio of veterans also helped shape the quarterback market for the rest of the offseason.
Mayfield started the chain reaction Sunday afternoon when he signed a three-year, $100 million contract with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Wilson agreed to terms Sunday night with the Pittsburgh Steelers for one year and the league minimum of $1.2 million. It culminated in Cousins’ deal Monday afternoon with him agreeing to a four-year, $180 million deal with the Atlanta Falcons.
While the moves and financial parameters were unique, they were also somewhat connected when they came together, according to at least half a dozen sources with direct knowledge of the situations.
Mayfield was coming off the best season of his career in his first go-round with the Bucs, and the 28-year-old wanted to stay in Tampa after bouncing around the league for a couple of years. He has had eight head coaches and seven offensive coordinators while playing for four teams in his first six seasons, so continuity has been a goal of his for quite some time, league sources said.
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Mayfield appreciated the way the Bucs set him up for success last season, not only with former offensive coordinator Dave Canales but with the leadership of coach Todd Bowles and the culture of veterans around the building. And although Canales left for Carolina, Mayfield is somewhat familiar with new offensive coordinator Liam Coen from his month with the Los Angeles Rams in 2022.
The Bucs and Mayfield accelerated negotiations last week and intensified over the weekend with a series of proposals and counteroffers. For Mayfield and that desire for continuity, the money guaranteed in the second year of the deal was particularly important from a job security perspective.
He got $40 million fully guaranteed, with $30 million in 2024 and another $10 million in 2025, plus an extra $10 million per injury. So as long as he plays well, Mayfield should return to the Buccaneers in 2025. But if the Bucs decide to part ways after the 2024 season, he will have earned $40 million for his services.
Last month, league executives believed Mayfield might consider New York Giants quarterback Daniel Jones’ four-year, $160 million contract as a comparable deal. And perhaps, if Mayfield had wanted to delay his free agency until Monday, when the NFL negotiating window opened, he possibly could have found a deal with more total money.
But that’s not as simple as it seems. Over the weekend, people around the league believed Cousins would decide between the Falcons and the Minnesota Vikings, leaving the losing team and the Buccaneers alone in a competition for Mayfield. But the hypothetical risk with that strategy could have involved the Vikings offering a low number and the Buccaneers withdrawing their best offer. And while the New England Patriots were internally excited about Mayfield, a union between the parties simply didn’t make sense; again, it left Mayfield with two potential suitors with the appropriate cap space to make a good offer and the personnel to compete for a division. title.title.
In the end, Mayfield wanted to return to the Bucs. He received an offer that should keep him safe for a minimum of two years and he accepted it.
The best opportunity to start.
Wilson’s situation was very different from Mayfield’s. The Denver Broncos will officially release him Wednesday at the start of the new league year, but informed him of that decision last week and allowed him to visit teams in the meantime.
Then there was the wild card with the economy. The Broncos are still hanging on to Wilson’s $39 million salary in 2024, and that’s considerably more than he could have gotten in free agency. So Wilson informed teams that he would play for the minimum (and the Broncos would pick up the rest of the bill) so they could use their cap space elsewhere.
Wilson had two quality games with the Giants and Steelers. Both were considered exploratory sessions and provided insight into his visions for the offense and Wilson’s goals for the season.
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The Giants offered no guarantees on playing time, as Jones is expected to start once his torn ACL has healed. As for the Steelers, who benched 2022 first-round pick Kenny Pickett last season, Wilson has a very realistic path to a starting job for a team consistently in the playoff mix and is never done. below .500 in coach Mike Tomlin’s 17 seasons.
Wilson met Friday with the Steelers’ decision-makers, including Tomlin, offensive coordinator Arthur Smith and general manager Omar Khan. With Tomlin and Smith, the offense should get physical again with a strong running game and enough performance opportunities for Wilson to throw the deep ball, assuming he wins the job.
Wilson put together a better season in 2023 before the Broncos benched him in December, in part to ensure an injury wouldn’t further complicate their offseason decision with the quarterback. If the 35-year-old can maintain that trajectory, he will increase his chances of finding a more lucrative payday in 2025, whether in Pittsburgh or elsewhere.
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A two-team race for Cousins?
Cousins, despite having a torn Achilles tendon, was the central figure in the quarterback carousel and, in fact, had decided on Atlanta and Minnesota, where he played from 2018 to 2023. If either of those options remained along the way and financial offers fell through, a league source said the Broncos likely would have gotten involved.
But dwindling offers weren’t a problem as the Falcons and Vikings pushed hard for Cousins, who will receive $90 million guaranteed over the first two years of the deal. Cousins had previously crossed paths in Washington with new Falcons coach Raheem Morris, and the quarterback should quickly study under offensive coordinator Zac Robinson, whose principles are similar to those of Vikings coach Kevin O’Connell, from his days with the Rams.
It was an eventful first day in NFL free agency!
Which team made the best play? pic.twitter.com/s9LP5GjdCI
– The Atlético (@TheAthletic) March 12, 2024
The Falcons have also been putting together a better roster in recent years, and Cousins’ arrival should help them compete for the NFC South title and a playoff berth. They have a strong running game, an improving offensive line and attractive pass catchers in Drake London and Kyle Pitts.
It was a perfect recipe for Cousins, who will turn 36 at the start of next season.
The Vikings tried to keep Cousins, but they also knew it was important to prepare for the future at the position and couldn’t make the same financial commitment. So when the Falcons stepped up their offer, considering the attractiveness of the roster and coaching staff, everything worked out for Cousins.
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The remaining QB market
There are some moving parts left. The Chicago Bears, Washington Commanders and Patriots have the top three picks in the upcoming NFL Draft, and indications suggest each team will select a quarterback with USC’s Caleb Williams, North Carolina’s Drake Maye and LSU’s Jayden Daniels as the expected candidates.
Basically, that has only left the Vikings, Broncos and Las Vegas Raiders vacant. The Raiders agreed to a two-year, $15 million contract with Gardner Minshew that could be worth up to $25 million, and he will compete with Aidan O’Connell. The Broncos still have Jarrett Stidham, while the Vikings appear to be starting over.
With Jacoby Brissett joining the Patriots, the free agent market is highlighted by Sam Darnold, Joe Flacco and Ryan Tannehill. It still seems inevitable that the Raiders will release Jimmy Garoppolo, and the Bears should still look to trade Justin Fields. The Commanders are likely to move Sam Howell, and the Jets are expected to part ways with Zach Wilson in some way.
Now that deals are finalized for Mayfield, Russell Wilson and Cousins, there’s one last fascinating element at play. Those final three teams in need of quarterback reinforcements (the Vikings, Broncos and Raiders, respectively) have picks Nos. 11-13 in the draft. They could compete again for Michigan’s JJ McCarthy or maybe even Oregon’s Bo Nix and Washington’s Michael Penix.
The trio of veterans set the stage for more fireworks on the quarterback front over the next two months.
(Photos by Baker Mayfield, Kirk Cousins and Russell Wilson:
Todd Rosenberg, Stephen Maturen and Cooper Neill/Getty Images)
