After starting the second round with three straight losses, the Carolina Hurricanes have officially turned the series into exciting back-to-back victories in Games 4 and 5.
That's more like what many expected from this series before it began: a hard-fought, hard-fought battle between the two titans of the Metropolitan Division. While it certainly happened that way on the ice with three one-goal games to start, the series score obviously told a different story.
Thursday night in Game 6, the Hurricanes have a very real opportunity to flip that script, as they will be relatively heavy favorites at home to take the series to a Game 7 with a third straight victory.
This may be a nauseating thought for Rangers fans, but it's a rare pleasure for hockey fans in general. It would be the first time since 2014 that a team forced a Game 7 after starting a series down 3-0, when the Los Angeles Kings rallied in the first round to eliminate the San Jose Sharks.
That an entire decade has passed since the last case of this type is more far-fetched than it seems at first glance.
There may be nothing more exciting in sports than a comeback, a failing team returning from the dead against all odds. Game by game, hockey fans have been blessed in that department over the past few seasons. The “most dangerous advantage in hockey” remains, but it also extends to three- and four-goal cushions, which have evaporated at a much greater rate in recent years. In this sport, really no advantage is certain.
And yet, that growing comeback mentality hasn't extended to the playoff series. Over the last decade, a 3-0 series lead might as well be a done deal. It is a hopeless guarantee for the oppressed.
It's not even that there haven't been comebacks; It's just that there hasn't even been a team that has been close, with no Game 7 to speak of in those situations.
To some, that may seem like a lie, given the rarity in hockey history. A 3-0 series lead is a hold that should be impossible to release, a feat reserved only for the greatest choke artists.
Even with the increase in parity in the salary cap era, we should have seen a few more in the last decade simply by chance. There is always a chance for even the most unexpected to happen, and the fact that those possibilities haven't materialized is fascinating.
Since 2015, there have been 30 cases where a team lost 3-0, and 60 percent of them ended unceremoniously in a sweep. Only four (13 percent) made it to Game 6, where the Hurricanes are now, with last year's Dallas Stars being the first to do so in eight (!) seasons.
While the odds are never in favor of a team that is down 3-0, they are also never zero. At least they shouldn't be. There's a myth that a 3-0 deficit only happens to the worst teams, the ones that would be extremely unlikely to dig themselves out of that hole to begin with, but it can happen to even the best of teams.
Before the series began, all 30 teams were ranked from 17 percent underdogs to 77 percent favorites (hello 2019 Tampa Bay Lightning) based on Sports Odds History series pricing. Of the 30, 13 teams were expected to win from the start. Based on that, and taking into account a lower opinion of the team after losing three straight, the odds of at least forcing a Game 7 ranged from four percent to 20 percent. The chances of returning ranged from one percent to 13 percent.
On average, we're talking about a 1 in 10 chance of forcing a Game 7 and a 1 in 20 chance of winning the series after falling 3-0. Those are clearly small probabilities, but over 30 series, those small probabilities add up.
Based on each team's odds after being down 3-0, we should have seen three Game 7s with one or two complete comebacks. Instead we have zero. In short: we have been robbed.
Some will be quick to point out the human element in all of this, and it's a very fair point. Up 3-0, many teams have shown the killer instinct necessary to close out the series. Trailing 3-0, many teams have retreated at the prospect of the mountain that awaits them. Sometimes teams that are down 3-0 just aren't as good as expected from the start. Or the team up 3-0 is much better.
As valid as those points seem, the odds of not seeing a Game 7 for a team that's down 3-0, much less a comeback, are still very low, low enough that not even true qualitative counters can explain it. Considering 30 cases with an average 10.6 percent chance of seeing a Game 7, there's a 97 percent chance we should have seen at least one. A 5.2 percent chance of seeing a comeback in 30 cases gives us an 80 percent chance of seeing at least one on that front.
The odds of chaos have been quite high over the past decade; They simply have not manifested themselves. This can happen in small samples; The 30 series definitely qualifies for that.
However, in a larger sample, the odds tend to even out, and that is best demonstrated by looking at the beginning of the salary cap era. There, the probabilities perfectly reflect reality.
From 2006 to 2014, there were 38 series in which a team fell 3-0, but those teams clearly had a little more fight. A higher percentage won at least one game (57 percent), two forced a Game 7 and lost (Detroit and Chicago in 2011), and two of those teams won (Los Angeles in 2014 and Philadelphia in 2010).
Your average odds? The same as last decade: 11 percent to force Game 7 and five percent to complete the comeback.
Add up all the odds and that nine-year period had exactly the amount of dramatic chaos expected: 4.1 game 7s and 2.1 comebacks. It's a stark contrast to what we've received over the past decade. Hockey fans are way behind.
Just because it's overdue doesn't mean it should happen. It's a fallacy to suggest there will be more Game 7s and comebacks after a team goes down 3-0 simply because it hasn't happened in a long time. That doesn't make it any more likely to happen in the near future. The odds, on average, remain one in 10 for a Game 7 and one in 20 for a comeback.
But we're as close as we can get here with hurricanes.
For Carolina, specifically, the odds have changed after winning Games 4 and 5. There is now a more than 60 percent chance of forcing Game 7 and a more than 30 percent chance of completing the comeback. For the first time in a decade, we have a great chance to witness history.
The odds are still very much in favor of the Rangers here, up 3-2, and no one is ruling out the Presidents' Trophy champions getting that much-needed fourth victory. But the Hurricanes also have a great team, one with a real chance of living up to their motto: “cause chaos.”
(Photo: Joshua Sarner/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
